What now for Irish Politics?

It has been a roller-coaster couple of weeks in Ireland.

The party that has almost continuously run the country (with a couple of brief interludes) since the inception of the state lies in ruins, or at least its reputation does. Whether the party itself will actually be made to pay for its failures since 1997 is yet to be revealed. I wouldn’t count them out just yet, Fianna Fail is very clever in the way that it fields its candidates. The people who vote Fianna Fail, are not generally voting for the party, but rather for the candidate, because they were nice to their mother when their father died, or they came to their uncles funeral, or they got the potholes fixed down the end of the street, or simply because they are known to always be willing to buy a couple of pints should you meet them in the local bar. This is unlikely to change just because a couple of Fianna Failers, the cabinet, appear to have let the country down. I think there will be a definite reduction of the number of FF TD’s, but mainly from urban constituencies, and nowhere near the magnitude that some commentators are predicting.

This is an obvious opportunity for the other existing political parties to make gains.

Fine Gael should pick up a couple of extra seats, but again I am not entirely convinced that the forthcoming election is going to reveal a major swing towards them. Fine Gael have unfortunately proved themselves to be pretty inept of late. The leadership heave by Richard Bruton against Enda Kenny, while no doubt required, was extremely badly timed. When Fine Gael should have been ripping the sitting government apart for mismanaging the country, they instead were taking pot shots at each other. The fact that the heave ultimately failed, leaving Fine Gael with a leader that most of the country neither rates nor trusts was the worst possible outcome for the party. They looked like fools, and it is unlikely that the country is going to place their trust in them at a time when steady, and more importantly strong hands will be required to navigate the unsettled waters ahead.

Labour is a more interesting prospect. They have a leader in Gilmore who appears intelligent, able for a scrap, and (probably most importantly) doesn’t come across as rabid or supercilious as Labour’s previous leader Pat Rabbitte, for whom I should point out I have a great deal of respect, but for whom I fear the country did not.

However Labour does not appear to be set up to make serious gains in the number of seats that it holds in Dail Eireann. It does not appear to be fielding enough candidates in all of the constituencies, and more worryingly, it appears that in the consituencies where it has well known TD’s and a safe seat, that these ‘personalities’ within the party are actually stymieing attempts to introduce additional candidates, in case these candidates end up eating into their majority. This is absolutely crazy and will backfire for Labour, as now that additional seats might be up for grabs, they do not have the people in place to take them. That said however, Labour should pick up additional support in the election, and this should mean a couple of extra seats.

The Green Party are in a very precarious position for the next election. The perception is that they went into coalition with Fianna Fail, in order to advance green policies and also to keep Fianna Fail on the straight and narrow. Unfortunately they appear to have failed utterly in both senses. Their achievements seem to be bike lanes that end in the middle of the road, an incinerator that nobody wants and a Fianna Fail that did whatever it wanted, and had all of its bad decisions rubber-stamped by the Green Party. It, I reckon will be the big loser at the next election. If they manage to retain more than two seats, it will come as a surprise to me, and I voted Green at the last election.

Sinn Féin is a more likely beneficiary in the meltdown of the biggest republican party. Sinn Féin has shown itself adept at mobilising grass roots support at short notice, and appears to be able to field candidates within an equally short timeframe. As Sinn Féin have traditionally been very successful in gaining support from the marginalised groups in society, and in the poorer parts of the cities in particular, they should have no difficulty in turning the effects of the additional strain that the economic crisis has inflicted upon the lower paid, and the resulting cuts that the government has made in social welfare and the minimum wage into an increased share of the poll for the party.

I will make no bones about it, this does not fill me with joy. I do not trust Sinn Féin. I do not trust a party that was born out of a terrorist organisation despite how many declarations that they make that they are no longer involved in that particular brand of political activism. This may well be a irrational prejudice on my behalf, I will leave you to judge that for yourselves. They have certainly been very successful in Northern Ireland, and thus far have proven themselves to be willing and capable of sharing power with those that a few short years ago, they were sworn to drive off the island. But I will never vote for them. I think however, that I am in a minority in my views, and that a growing proportion of the population of the Republic view Sinn Féin as a viable alternative to the traditional left wing parties, and more bizarrely to Fianna Fail, who are most definitely not left wing.

What worries me the most however about the upcoming election, is the possibility that there may be new parties vying for our votes. Obviously I am not concerned about the existence of new parties, in fact I would be quite happy to see a new democratic party based on reasonably conservative fiscal strategies and a more liberal social agenda. It is the possibility that Ireland in this time of crisis may turn to politicians with more extreme views, who traditionally pick up support when things aren’t going so well. I have already seen a growing voice in the country complaining about immigration, especially when the immigrants don’t have the same colour skin as the indigenous population and I can only imagine that as economic conditions become more difficult, the cry of “Irish Jobs for Irish People” and “Immigrants go home!” will become more and more prevalent. If, as I fear they will, a certain type of politician crawls out of the woodwork and attempts to try and fuel and then harness some of that sentiment, how will the country react. I would like to say that they will be rejected, and that the Irish who for hundreds of years were on the receiving end of prejudice around the world would refuse to support such a movement, but to tell you the truth after listening to some of the comments on radio shows, and from some incidents that I have personally witnessed in the street my confidence in this outcome has been shaken.

It is no secret that when economic times are tough, and when extra stresses are placed upon a society, that the political movements at the extremes of the spectrum are those that usually garner extra support: Germany in the late 1920′s during the Weimar Regime, the United Kingdom during the late 1960′s and again in the late 1980′s, The Russian Empire in the early years of the 20th century, Hungary and certain other Eastern European countries in the last few years to name but a few were societies that saw rises in extremist views, in particular those that used anti-immigrant or anti-minority rhetoric to whip up support. Ireland is now facing one of the most difficult times in our history, a period of extreme austerity on the back of a period of extraordinary growth and prosperity, and crucially of vastly increased levels of immigration. As the number of jobs decrease, standards of living decrease and levels of poverty and hardship increase, will we see a rush to the fringes of political thought as has happened in so many other countries?

It is all up for grabs in the next couple of weeks/months. It will be very interesting to see in which direction the Irish electorate gravitates. For all our sakes, I hope my worst fears are not realised.